At the last year informal summit between India and China, on the periphery of Chennai, Prime Minister (PM) Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping decided to celebrate the 70th anniversary of bilateral relations in 2020 by deepening exchanges at all levels — between the legislatures, political parties, cultural and youth organisations, even the militaries of the two countries. Even more encouraging, both of them decided to organise 70 activities, including a conference on a ship that would trace the historical connect between the two civilisations.
No one predicted that such an excellent diplomatic picture would turn as grim as it has now, with the spread of the coronavirus that was first reported from Wuhan.
At present, the Indian Army is facing two aggressive Combined Arms Brigades of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) at Galwan Valley and Pangong Tso patrolling points along the 3,488-kilometre-long Line of Actual Control (LAC).
Taking into consideration, India’s lines of communication and air bases are closer to LAC, the scenario may not favour PLA. For example, its Russian copy fighters will suffer severe load penalty if they take off from the rarefied Tibetan plateau. The PLA has already lost the element of surprise after days of stand-off, and the next question facing Chinese generals would be whether their troops can force a decisive victory.
Still, with both leaders previously committing to not turning bilateral differences into disputes, it would be in the interest of both parties to withdraw to their respective base camps in Eastern Ladakh as no way India is going to give permission to China to make unilateral changes in either of the sectors.
